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Overcards

  An overcard is a card games on the flop that is higher than the highest card in your hand.  It represent the threat that it has paired one of your opponent’s hole cards.

  If you have T♣ T ♥ then you definitely would not like a flop like K ♥ 8 ♦ 6♠ against six players.  Any player betting in front of you is representing at least a pair of Kings.  Whether or not he actually has a King is for you to figure out and it usually means you’ll have to fold your hand, even if you sometimes actually have the best hand at that point.
  You have to have an Ace in the pocket to not have to worry about an overcard, and that’s going to happen only 14.9% of the time.  The X in the following table represents any card lower than the one named.


Percent Chance That You Will Flop an overcard

You Hold

None

One

Two

Three

One or More

An overcard and No Set if paired

K♣K♦OR KX

77.449

21.222

1.408

0.020

22.550

11.67

Q♦Q♥OR QX

58.571

35.143

6.000

0.286

41.429

31.12

J♥ J♠  OR JX

43.041

43.041

12.796

1.122

56.959

46.96

T♠T♣ OR TX

30.531

45.796

20.816

2.875

69.487

59.57

9♣ 9♦ OR 9X

20.714

44.388

29.082

5.816

79.286

69.30

8♦ 8♥ OR 8X

13.265

39.796

36.612

10.327

86.735

76.54

7♥ 7♠ OR 7X

7.857

33.000

42.429

16.714

92.143

81.65

6♠ 6♣ OR 6X

4.163

24.980

36.612

25.306

95.837

85.01

5♣ 5♦ OR 5X

1.857

16.714

45.551

36.429

98.143

86.97

4♦ 4♥ OR 4X

0.612

9.184

39.796

50.408

99.3898

87.92

3♥ 3♠ OR 3X

0.102

3.367

28.959

67.571

99.898

88.22

2♠ 2♣

impossible

0.245

11.510

88.245

1000.00

 


  None, one, two and three means the chance of having exactly that many overcards come on the flop.  For example, if you hold Q ♥ Q♣, there will be exactly two overcards (Aces or Kings) on the flop 6.0% of the time.  The One or More column is simply the total of the one, two and three columns. Hold'em no limit .
  Note that there is barely any difference between a pair of deuces and a pair of eights in the pocket when it comes to flopping an overcard.  A Jack in the pocket is the median hand for flopping an overcard.  A Jack in the pocket is the median hand for flopping  an overcard.  You’ll get one or more 57% of the time while you’ll flop an overcard to a Queen only 41% of the time.  That is why in a multi-way pot I do not raising pre-flop with J ♥ J ♦ in the pocket.  I know I’ll get an overcard over half the time so I see the flop as cheaply as possible.

  The column on the far right gives the odds of getting at least one overcard and not flopping a set when you hold a pair in the pocket.  In other words, it gives the odds that you won’t like the flop