Home


Basic Odds for the Flop

  The following table lists all of the 169 possible starting hands and the odds of making specific hands on the flop.  There are a few things you should be aware of to help you make sense of the statistics:
A.   There are exactly 19,600 ways to flop three poker cards distribution when you hold two cards, your   pocket cards, out of the deck.  So, the odds of flopping any three exact cards you specify are 19,599 to 1.

B.    When your hand is a pair, you will flop a full house.  98% of the time.  However, one-fourth of the time it will be with a set on the board and your full house will not be very well disguised.  For example, if you hold 8♦ 8♥, you will make your full house by flopping an 8 with a pair only.  7125% of time.  That’s three-fourths of. 98%; the total Odds of making any full house play poker

C.   When your hand is not a pair, you will flop three of a kind.  1.57% of the time.  However, one-seventh of these will be with the three of a kind on the board.  So, when you hold something like K ♦ J ♠, you will get two Kings or two Jacks on the flop 1.34% of the time (6/7 thus of 1.571%).

D.   When your hand is not a pair, you will flop two pair 4.041% of the time, but exactly one-half of these will be with one of the pairs on the board.  That means that your two pair on the flop will be concealed only half of the time.

E.    When your hand is not a pair, you will flop one pair 40.408% of the time.  However, one-third of these pairs will be on the board and not pair one of your hole card games.  That means you will flop one of your hole cards 26.939% of the time.

F.    The chance of flopping a four-flush when you are suited is 10.944%.  the chance of flopping a four-flush when you are not suited is 2.245%.

G.   Any time you are suited and connected, i.e. you hold 8♥ 7♥, you will flop both a straight limit poker and a flush draw 3.352% of the time.

H.   The “s” after a hand, in the following chart, AKs means Ace-King Suited.  AK without an s means the hand is not suited.